A British research organization has warned that a Donald Trump presidency could have a dangerous impact on the world economy, increasing the potential of Islamic terror attacks and of a trade war with Mexico and China.
The Economist Intelligence Unit released its updated global risk assessment, ranking the election of Trump a 12 on a scale of one to 25 — the same number it assigned to the possibility that jihadi terrorism would destabilize the global economy.
The firm pointed to a number of reasons, including Trump’s hostility toward free trade, his accusing China of being a currency manipulator, his advocating the killing of terrorists’ families, and his proposal to move troops into Syria to fight ISIS and take its oil.
This appeared to be the first time the EIU had rated a presidential candidate’s election as a global risk, the firm told Politico.
“His militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East (and ban on all Muslim travel to the U.S.) would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond,” the EIU said.
The organization ranks risks by impact and probability. A Trump presidency bore high impact, but moderate probability, the EIU said.
“Although we do not expect Mr. Trump to defeat his most likely Democratic contender, Hillary Clinton, there are risks to this forecast, especially in the event of a terrorist attack on U.S. soil or a sudden economic downturn,” the authors wrote.
Trump also will likely face stiff opposition in Congress, both from Democrats and Republicans, the EIU said.
That “internal bickering,” however, could weaken the country’s policymaking, the firm said.
Other global threats on the list included a “sharp economic slowdown in China,” a collapse of investment in the oil sector, the break up of the European Union, the further rise of jihadi terrorism, and Russian actions in Ukraine and Syria leading to “a new ‘cold war.'”
The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Also Wednesday, the Washington Post editorial board called for the Republican Party to aim for as brokered convention to prevent a Trump nomination, arguing that Trump “presents a threat to American democracy.”
“Mr. Trump resembles other strongmen throughout history who have achieved power by manipulating democratic processes,” the editorial board wrote. “Their playbook includes a casual embrace of violence; a willingness to wield government powers against personal enemies; contempt for a free press; demonization of anyone who is not white and Christian; intimations of dark conspiracies; and the propagation of sweeping, ugly lies.”